Archive for the ‘Middle East’ Category

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British Foreign Policy and the Arab Spring

March 15, 2012

The Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Select Committee is holding an investigation into British Foreign Policy and the Arab Spring and they’ve just published a transcript of their evidence session with Lord Malloch-Brown, formerly of the UN and the FCO and now working for a political risk consultancy.  He’s got plenty to say about ‘electronic solidarity’ and the uprisings, the inapplicability of the Marshall Plan analogy and the state of language teaching in the UK education system.

A few highlights

The West, in this perverse situation, is not providing the one thing it should-money-and is providing a lot of what it shouldn’t, which is free advice and what is interpreted in the region as…meddling

The British Council is clearly having a good Arab Spring by all accounts, but the big players are really disappointing. The EU is disappointing, because it is quite unable to assert itself as the real strategic partner of economic and political change in the way it did in central and eastern Europe. The combination of major funds with the big carrot of, “If you guys reform you can join the European Union”, is completely missing. The one big funding source we have as Europeans is missing in action in any sort of evident way.

Lord Malloch-Brown: Gloriously, the FCO’s civil society involvement, or more informal involvement, in Egypt came around its different programmes to support moderate Islamic development, if I can put it that way, which did give the FCO, by promoting academics and scholarship, access into university campuses in Egypt, and certain other groups, which I have no doubt have been a spearhead of re-engagement after the revolt; but I think Britain, frankly, suffers from its perceived closeness in the Middle East to the US policies. I think its position on the Palestinian statehood request will have been widely noticed in the region.

I think the UK long since ceased the sort of Arab camel train UK foreign policy. To the extent that it has been seen as very closely linked to that of the US in the region there are many who are in a much better strategic position than the UK, at this stage-not just France, which is a very close ally and tends to act as one with us in that world now, but Nordic countries. Obviously Turkey is the absolute favoured country of the region, despite its own colonial past there. I think there are plenty of countries, which have had less history with the old regimes and therefore have been able to turn the page more effectively than we have.

Q119Ann Clwyd: Do you think that the Foreign Office needs to re-evaluate its whole approach to the region?

Lord Malloch-Brown: Look, the Foreign Office-I think from testimony you have received you will have seen its version of this-in a way which is a remarkable thing about it as an institution, scrambled to broaden its team. Some astonishing number of the whole of the Foreign Office were working on the Arab Spring at one point, so it was very adept in a Whitehall mandarin way at pulling people together to address this, but in terms of the strategy going forward, yes, it has not escaped its past in the region. It is doing bits and pieces to re-engage. It has played a pretty deft tactical hand over the past year, but there is a need for a back-to-basics strategic review of how we write our policy for the future.

Q120Ann Clwyd: You are critical of the EU. What should the EU be doing?

Lord Malloch-Brown: I think the EU needs to do something similar. I think the EU problem is, first, that this isn’t eastern Europe, so obviously it does not have the same carrots to offer; but, secondly, if ever there was somewhere where the EU could line up the 27 members behind a coherent approach, surely it is this. In my view there is not much evidence that it has, and that it is therefore able to show leadership. The blame for that is partly the Brussels system and the external affairs apparatus; but it is also the member states. As an old UN man I am always first to point the finger at the member state for failures on these occasions.

The full transcript is here

 

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How Much Has The US Image in the Middle East Changed?

September 8, 2011

The past decade has seen lots of opinion polling on attitudes towards the United States around the world and particularly in the Middle East.  This has allowed the public diplomacy community to agonize about what is to be done and now it’s allowing Republicans and Democrats to beat each other over the head about the foreign policies of the Bush and Obama administrations.  Has Obama led to an improvement or a decline in America’s position?

The question that occurs to me though is does anyone have any pre 9/11 polling on perceptions of the US in Middle East countries?

Assessing opinion in 2003 or 2006 or 2009 against attitudes immediately after 9/11 is misleading in that we would expect  9/11 to create an upsurge in approval in the same way that a natural disaster would. The normal expectation in opinion polling is that the impact of single events will ebb over time and that other things being equal underlying sources of opinion will reassert themselves.

Hence a better reference point for changes in the image of the US might be perceptions in the autumn of 2000 rather than of 2001. My hypothesis would be that  the post 9/11 ratings were unsustainably high and that ratings a decade later, as the Bush Administration and the invasion of Iraq recede, are probably in the same ball park to where they had been if anyone had bothered to do the polling then.

If anyone can point to me to any pre 9/11 polling I’m more than ready to be proved wrong

 

 

 

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